Four Way to Cash In at the 2021 Open Championship
Look beyond the favorite with these best bets and longshots for the Open Championship, Thursday through Sunday, July 15-18 at Royal St. George's Golf Club.
It’s Major Week as the highly anticipated 2021 Open Championship is finally here! This week we shift our sights onto the final major of the year taking place at Royal St. George’s Golf Club. The track measures at 7,189 yards for a par 70. Jon Rahm comes into this event as the betting favorite at +700.
This links-style course will be tough to dominate, as the rough will be very thick if golfers are off target. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner in single digits Sunday.
This week, I’m looking for players who’ve done well on links-style courses and for great Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Driving metrics. There are also a lot of intangibles that will come into play at the 2021 Open. The two biggest will be experience and weather. I’ve hit several outrights this year, so we’re going to take those aforementioned factors into account and then use the same methods/data I’ve been using to identify best bets & longshots for the 2021 Open. Let’s dig in!
Dustin Johnson +1800
Dustin Johnson isn’t on anyone’s radar, and that is just the way I like it. From a betting perspective, I’m actually kind of glad DJ’s been “off” lately, because we’re getting a better price on his outright odds.
Johnson has the experience part down, as he’s done well at the Open multiple times. In 2011, he was the betting favorite going into Sunday, and he’s finished T12 or better here four times over his career.
Metrics wise, he’s 38th in Approach and 17th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Getting DJ here at 18-1 is a great value bet in my book.
Rory McIlroy +1800
Rory McIlroy fits both the eye test and analytics going into the 2021 Open. He’s trending in the right direction, is 2nd in Driving Distance, 8th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 29th in Approach, and has the mental makeup to win the big one.
Not to mention course fit and experience, as Rory has played well at the Open Championship. McIlroy won the 2014 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, where he beat Sergio Garcia and Rickie Fowler by two strokes. He’s also finished T2, T3, T4, and T5 at this event over his career. Pretty, pretty good!
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In this section, I’m looking for guys that have 25-1 or longer odds. If any of them are in the running come Sunday, I will live bet and hedge for a little pizza money to make sure I come out on top.
Louis Oosthuizen +2500
Louis Oosthuizen is playing some amazing golf right now, with runner-up finishes in two of his last 3 Tour starts. Look at these results he’s had recently: 2nd at the U.S. Open, T2 at the PGA Championship, and 2nd at the Zurich Classic.
The PGA Championship sticks out to me the most, because I compare this week’s course to the Kiawah Island Ocean Course. Oost is very familiar with playing on links courses, and it’ll show this weekend. He’ll be in the mix come Sunday, so at 25-1, I had to fire.
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Tyrrell Hatton +3500
Love Tyrell Hatton this week, as do the models. Understandably so, as Hatton is a great ball striker and ranks 11th in Approach and Total Driving, and 20th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
The Englishmen knows how to play on links courses, as seen by his past wins at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2016 and 2017.
He was T2 at Congaree just a month ago, so he’s knocking on the door. At 35-1, this is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
Marc Leishman +6000
Marc Leishman ranks 73rd in Approach, but 2nd in Approach from 200-225 out. I love that this week. He won the Zurich Classic and just finished 3rd at the Travelers, so I love the form he’s in.
Leishman has also played well at this event, finishing sixth or better in three of his last six Open Championships. He also has six PGA TOUR wins, and is a great course fit. Definitely worth a second look at these odds.
Sergio Garcia +7000
When I think of Sergio Garcia, I think of the Open, because this is where he feels comfortable and plays his best golf. Garcia’s finished in the Top 10, 10 different times at this event.
He’s 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 20th in Total Driving, and 60th in Approach.
With his experience, these odds are way too long for a golfer like Garcia. Great value in this number here.
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The 2021 Open Championship
When: Thursday, July 15 through Sunday, July 18
Where: Royal St. George’s in Sandwich, Kent, England
Watch: The Golf Channel, NBC
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