Guardians, Yankees, Orioles Best MLB Bets
The MLB season is less than a month away and we’ve got some expert picks for futures bets on the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, and Baltimore Orioles.
Before the MLB season begins, we’re going through all 30 teams, detailing futures to target for every club and touching on some of the most intriguing storylines from around the league.
In this article we are going to look at three American League Teams; the New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, and Baltimore Orioles.
Remember, there are three major rule changes this year, as a pitch timer, shift restrictions and bigger bases will be introduced. The pitch timer helped reduce game length by 25 minutes in the minors last year, shift restrictions increased batting average and decreased strikeouts, and bigger bases not only improved player safety but resulted in more steals and a better product. These changes can and most likely will have major on-field impacts, which makes predicting outcomes even more difficult in 2023.
Yankees Win Totals, Judge Home Runs
The New York Yankees have one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but haven’t won a World Series since 2009. That hasn’t stopped them from opening up the wallet.
New York signed free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tommy Kahnle, in addition to resigning Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo. There is no doubt this team will be loaded, and could have the best starting pitching in baseball with Gerrit Cole, Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, and Domingo German.
The Over of 94.5 regular season wins (-110 at BetMGM) is the only way to go here when it comes to the win total for the team. With the amount of money that’s in this squad, if they don’t win 100 games, it should be considered a failure of a regular season. That pitching rotation is incredible, with not a single starter over a 3.61 ERA last season, and should be the best in baseball if they can stay healthy. The lineup speaks for itself after last season; they led MLB with 254 HR, were one of just seven teams with 200+ homers, and also had an MLB-high 620 walks drawn. Top to bottom, they are loaded with talent with even more to come with trades and call-ups looming.
Another good New York bet is Judge to be regular season HR leader at +600 on Caesars. As you know, he certainly can do that after he broke the all-time record last season.
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Young Cleveland Roster Growing Up
The Cleveland Guardians proved last season that young players can make some noise in MLB. Their very raw roster took home the AL Central crown on their way to the playoffs.
The offense did what it had to do and had some shining moments last season. But we know the biggest strength of this Cleveland team has been the pitching. The good news for them is that the entire starting five will return for 2023 and the bullpen also remains mostly intact.
The Over 86.5 regular season wins (-115 at Golden Nugget) has to be one of our best bets here. This is mostly the same roster that shocked everyone last season. Now those young stars have even more experience under their belts. The Guardians beat the Rays 2-0 in the Wild Card series before losing to the Yankees 3-2 in the ALDS. My only issue with them is their lack of power numbers. They had just a 33.1% hard-hit percentage, which was the worst in MLB. They also tied for worst in average exit velocity with an 87.2 MPH number. Still, if they can play like they did last season and increase their power numbers, this team has unlimited potential.
I would also take a look at their odds to make the playoffs at -140. I would also take to win the AL Central at +160 at BetMGM. This division is bad overall. The Guardians look to be the only team that is projected to have a winning record. I also think it’s worth a sprinkle on them to win the World Series at +3300 at Caesars as well.
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Orioles Take Step Back
Even though the Baltimore Orioles failed to make the postseason in 2022, last season was somewhat of a revelation for O’s fans. Since 1997, the Orioles have made the postseason three times (2012, 2014, and 2016) while finishing fourth or fifth in their division 19 times. Yes, it’s been that bad for the Birds, but last year was a season that sprung some hope for the team. In the offseason, Baltimore moved on from Rougned Odor, Brett Phillips, Jesus Aguilar, Chris Owings, and Robinson Chirinos. They signed Adam Frazier, Kyle Gibson, and Mychal Givens. It’s yet to be seen if these signings will help or not.
The future of this franchise lies in the development of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, and Grayson Rodriguez. These are the key young players that the organization will be building around in this era of Orioles baseball.
Taking Under 77.5 regular season wins (-114, BetMGM) I think is the safer bet here. I expect Baltimore to take a step back this season from their high of 2022. The roster and rotation simply isn’t at a level quite yet to reach the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean that the young talent won’t show out this season. Gunnar Henderson is a future superstar, and I think he has a chance to prove that in his rookie season. Taking him to win AL Rookie of the Year isn’t a bad bet at all. He is getting +350 line right now at Caesars. The team will rely on their young players quite a bit to carry the offense. Henderson should get a ton of at-bats.
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